Amazon earnings preview: Wall Street looks for more cloud growth as AI spending hits a record

Amazon reports quarterly earnings Thursday afternoon, facing the same test as every other big tech company right now: whether it’s generating enough business to justify its massive AI spending.

Wall Street expects revenue of about $196.4 billion, up 17% from a year ago, and earnings of $1.82 per share. That’s essentially the midpoint of Amazon’s own forecast for the second quarter.

Part of that growth is due to the calendar. Prime Day ran June 23-26 this year, during the second quarter in the U.S. and most large markets. Last year it ran July 8-11, in the third quarter. That gives Amazon’s retail numbers a boost this time that the year-ago quarter didn’t have.

Another factor is the cloud. AWS grew revenue 28% last quarter, its fastest rate in nearly four years, and analysts expect the acceleration to continue with revenue of roughly $40.5 billion for the second quarter, up 31%, according to Zacks Consensus Estimates.

The company plans a record $200 billion in capital expenditures this year, nearly all of it for data centers, servers and chips to support increased capacity for training and running AI models.

Amazon is making those investments based in part on demand from big AI companies including OpenAI and Anthropic, which have signed commitments to AWS worth $138 billion and more than $100 billion, respectively, for the coming years.

“We’re not investing approximately $200 billion in capex in 2026 on a hunch,” CEO Andy Jassy wrote in his April shareholder letter.

In the meantime, the spending is absorbing nearly all of the cash from Amazon’s operations. Free cash flow fell to $1.2 billion over the past 12 months, from $25.9 billion a year earlier.

Investors seem to be losing patience with that tradeoff overall. Google parent Alphabet beat expectations last week and its stock fell anyway, after raising its own capital spending forecast to as much as $205 billion for the year. Microsoft reports earnings Wednesday afternoon.

One difference for Amazon is its custom chip business — Graviton, Trainium and Nitro — which passed a $20 billion annual revenue run rate last quarter. Jeff Bezos said this week that it’s becoming a fourth pillar of the company, alongside Marketplace, Prime and AWS.

The company is overhauling its approach to AI model development. Business Insider reported this week that Amazon is winding down most of its in-house Nova models and concentrating engineers on a new frontier model effort, with a new flagship model expected at re:Invent this fall.

Amazon cut jobs in its AGI organization last week and confirmed that it’s closing its San Francisco AI site, while saying its frontier model research would continue.

At the same time, AWS is spending to help other companies deploy AI, committing $1 billion at the end of June to embed its own engineers with enterprise customers building agentic systems, following similar moves by OpenAI and Anthropic.

Check back with GeekWire for coverage on Thursday afternoon.